Lo-Cal to So-Cal

[Tree]

I may be moving up the coast. I've gotten a job offer from a company in Burbank that is pretty good so I'm contemplating the move. If I decide to take it I was thinking about buying in Palmdale and carpooling in or taking the metro. Anyone have any experience riding the metro pros/cons? I was looking closer around Santa Clarita but the difference in home cost has me thinking a 60 mi commute may not be that bad. I know I won't be hurting for riding areas so thats a plus.

 

[KX2fitty]

After a month of sitting on the 14 and it taking 2 1/2 hours to get home from Burbank you will say... F*** THIS! Palmdale is a mess also.

The metro is a better alternative but it sucks too.

Good luck.

 

[Skuta]

kx 2fitty is right. Although no matter where you live around here you will sit in traffic. What time would your shift end cause that would make a big difference in traffic? Between 4 and six is just horrible but if you get out before or after than it is a lot better. Not good but better.

 

[Tree]

My shift would start around 6am and end about 3:30pm. So hopefully I'd miss most of the traffic. Besides being in Palmdale is closer to most of the riding areas. Just down the street from Phelan/Baldy Mesa, just up the freeway to the high desert, and only about 50mins from Gorman, right.

 

[Skuta]

Ya there is also this place right where the 5 and 14 split called rower flats. It is an awesome place to ride, if you really look for the good trails and stay off the boring fire roads. Lots of tight trails and it is a blast.

Leaving at 3:30 would be alot better than leaving after 4:00. You will still hit some traffic but it will be moving instead of stop and go.

I live in Norwalk which is just below LA. Maybe we could go riding sometime and I can show you where all the good spots are. I like to ride every weekend but I usually only get to go every other weekend. There are also lots of tracks and I think there is one new one that they opened up right near palmdale. It is on the 14 I know for sure. There is also Piru mx and the I5 near gorman.

 

[dante]

in the high desert you'll find tons of little secret spots, for after work summer rides... If you like to ride allot the high desert is pretty sweet... Of course the crazy hot hot days, then the gale force wind days, and below freezing winter nights, are the only draw backs... Also allot of skinheads and meth activity, and all that goes with it... Defiantly things to consider... But overall I like the high desert...

 

[KX2fitty]

Tree, if you are getting off at that earlier time it will still be trafficy but not as bad as later. I usually leave Burbank around 3PM and I still hit traffic going up to SCV. Literally every minute you don't get on the freeway will be like 100 more cars after about 3-3:30PM.

Skuta, lety me know if you want to ride Rowher, I live 6 miles from the staging area and I know all the good spots up there. Glad to hear someone mention one of the more underrated ride spots we have. Drop me a PM and we'll ride.

 

[larosche]

Glad I left the rat race. I worked in Glendale for 8 years. Got a lot of good experience. However my house in Lake View Terrace had crooks for city leaders. The LA city council was totally corrupt.

I had a chance to move to Alabama in 1989. It was the best move we ever made. Both my wife & I were raised in California, but we really enjoy Huntsville.
My 12 mile drive from Lake View Terrace to Glendale wasn't too bad then, but I lived in several places before that and I had killer drives. It took 2 hours on Friday afternoons to get to Pomona.

Now I complain because my employer moved from 3 miles from my house to 7 miles. It takes me 15 minutes to drop off my youngest daughter and get to work. Oh yeah, the public schools here are not full of gangs. And my kids can walk anywhere here without fear.
RAD DAD

 

[KX2fitty]

larosche, glad to hear you were able to escape the liberal meltdown known as California!

 

[CPT Jack]

Tree,

The housing bubble is beginning to burst. I can cite a bunch of recent articles if you like but if I were you I would keep your existing home to rent out (assuming you own) and rent here in L.A. closer to your new job. Everyone agrees the boom has ended and double digit growth is over with. Most people in the real estate industry would have you believe it will just slow to single digit growth, but there is still massive overvaluation and the supply vs demand is turning upside down. A bust invariably follows every boom so I think these guys are dreaming if they don't think prices won't be coming down. There is the potential for a 30-40% downward adjustment in price, probably over many years.

I am in the market to buy but have decided to wait at least 3-6 months. I believe the price slide has just begun in some areas and will be in full effect during that time. I also believe L.A. will lag behind the trend (another 3-6) months. If a trend is identified I'll sit until it makes economic sense to stop renting.

We just looked at a $740,000 2 bdrm in Pasadena. I'd hate to lose $250K over 5-7 yrs while a large, highly leveraged mortgage. It makes more sense to me to invest the down payment into something safe and continue to rent.

 

[dirt bike dave]

It is true the resale market has softened or will soften in many areas of the state. However, the Santa Clarita real estate market is absolutely booming right now. No slow down in site there. Areas further east, in the Antelope Valley, are still doing well and likely to keep going up, IMO.

People fleeing LA but still working in LA have few places to go.

 

[Tree]

It's hard to believe the market in Antelope Valley is going to slow down with all the new construction going on there. They are building like crazy all around the outside of Palmdale and Lancaster. I just wonder what the flood of new homes does to the value of the existing homes, when you can buy a brand new one for around 450K. I would assume it would keep the home prices from rising very much because of the availability. And If the market does decrease it will go down where my current house is in San Diego also. So the deflation would occur where ever I owned. The only difference I would see would be from increased property taxes going from what I bought my current house for to a new higher priced home in the A/V and a little higher interest rate. Also, with the equity in my current home if I sold it and bought in the high desert I could pay off my curent loans and put the rest down on the new home. My home loan would be about the same but have a newer and bigger house in exchange and only have one payment to worry about.

 

[CPT Jack]

It's hard to believe the market in Antelope Valley is going to slow down with all the new construction going on there.

Well that's only part of the reason it's going to bust. There is no shortage of supply. Supply is increasing rapidly and the legs have been cut out of the demand. Demand was fueled by speculation and the affordablility limits stretched by cheap money and creative loans.

Perhaps Santa Clarita will even lag L.A., which lags other areas in CA. I haven't seen any specific data on SC, but last years hot spots (nationally) such as Pheonix and Miami are in deep Kimshi on the supply side. Teh pressure has to build a bit before the prices really drop, and it doesn't happen quickly like the stock market. But the new trend is already being set in Sacremento, Fresno, SF, & SD. And that trend is spelled B-U-S-T.

check out my blog (click)-> What Bubble? and make sure to do a lot of research on the links I provide.

 

[dirt bike dave]

I have seen specifics on Santa Clarita and the market is considered very under-supplied. You need to be very careful when generalizing about real estate, as boom and bust periods hit different areas at different times.

Santa Clarita is relatively anti-growth and is further constrained by rugged topography and lack of schools.

In case nobody noticed, California's population is increasing dramatically due to illegal immigration. This contributes to overall housing demand.

Furthermore, many residents of LA want to get out. Gangs, bad schools, pollution, etc... Those that have abundant equity in their homes and still want to keep their jobs in LA don't have too many options. Santa Clarita is an appealing choice.

If you can't afford to live in Santa Clarita, want more home for the money, want to live in the desert and can deal the commute, you go to the Antelope Valley. There are many people that fit into this group, so I would expect demand in Antelope Valley to remain strong.

 

[CPT Jack]

I would be interested some sources for supply in Santa Clarita. If you can point me to a link w/ supply & sales history. It's not a market listed at Housing Tracker. This site show a $40,000 decline in the median priced home in the last 6 months. Current supply is growing rapidly and sales are slowing at a pretty good pace.

I think Santa Clarita will be affected because it's mainly an annex to L.A. It's a more affordable alternative, but so are the open desert areas close to it. No one wants to commute, but they dobecause of affordability. Ergo, demand in SC is largely affected by affordability in L.A.. BTW, what are avg prices in SC for a nice 3 bdrm house, townhouse, 2/2 condo?

I doubt illegal immigration has any affect at all. If you're making 6 figures and still can't buy a home, there's no way Pedro's gonna. Those guys are renters. The boom was sustained on speculation, cheap money, and creative loans designed to raise the limit of affordabilty. But even that limit has been reached. There is no housing shortage, only a whole lot of temporary demand.

I could be wrong of course, but you'd have to convince me w/ data. Otherwise I may as well listen to the Realtors. BTW, I do think a few areas may stay strong from the short term, but more and more it appears to be a world-wide bubble. Some will get hurt more than others.

P.S. - Just in this morning - Foreclosures up 45% <= click