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[QUOTE="gnarlykaw, post: 877723, member: 23349"] AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV 945 PM PST SAT FEB 5 2005 .UPDATE... NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVES WAS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. 06/00Z KREV SOUNDING SHOWED A NEARLY SATURATED PROFILE BETWEEN H5-H3 AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE IN COMPLETE AGREEMENT THAT THE DRY LAYER BELOW THIS WOULD MOISTEN OVERNIGHT. THUS NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT FREEZING FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT CURRENT ADVISORY. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKING IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AFTER 14Z SUNDAY MORNING SO THAT SOME FREEZING FOG MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER GREATLY WEAKENED INVERSION UNDER TROUGH WILL MAKE FOG SHORTLIVED IF IT DOES MATERIALIZE WITH PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS DECK HANGING ON IN THE CARSON AND HUMBOLDT SINKS. WILL ALLOW MORE TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND SEE IF THE ADVISORY CAN BE PULLED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. OTHERWISE THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY. UPSTREAM SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW A MORE EASTERLY TRACK WITH SYSTEM. THE ETA IS THE WETTEST SOLUTION AND BRINGS NEARLY ONE HALF INCH OF QPF TO THE HIGH SIERRA AROUND TAHOE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. HOHMANN .SHORT TERM...EARLIER DISCUSSION TWO UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE SECOND WAVE WHICH COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD FINALLY SCOUR OUT THE VALLEYS AND GET RID OF THE FOG AND HAZE. THE FIRST IS NEAR 40N 130W WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT...AND HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE VALLEY INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN ZONES 1 AND 4 WHERE THEY ARE STRONGEST. HOWEVER SOME VERTICAL MOTION AND ADDITIONAL COOLING ALOFT SHOULD BREAK UP THE SHALLOW INVERSIONS IN ZONES 3...5 AND 71. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR ZONES 1 AND 4. WILL LEAVE SOME PATCHY FOG WORDING FOR ZONES 3...5 AND 71 AS NOT ALL THE INVERSIONS WILL GET MIXED OUT. THE SECOND WAVE WILL GET HERE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOOKS MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE :cool: THAN IT DID IN YESTERDAY RUNS. THE TRACK IS FARTHER EAST WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW PASSING FROM EASTERN OREGON INTO CENTRAL NEVADA. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW IS IN ZONES 4 AND 5...WITH ACCUMULATIONS NEAR OR JUST BELOW SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SIERRA AND RENO-CARSON AREA MAY GET NOTHING :cool: FROM THIS SYSTEM IF THE TRACK REMAINS OVER CENTRAL NEVADA. DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH NO VALLEY INVERSIONS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BRONG .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS ARE. THE NOGAPS HOWEVER INDICATES A DEEPER TROUGH THAN DO THE OTHER THREE MODELS. THE GFS...EURO AND NOGAPS ALL BRING THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE CANADIAN IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING ON THURSDAY SO THE MAIN THING WE WILL SEE IS INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. THE GFS BRINGS A JET MAX THROUGH NRN CA/SRN ORE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE KREV CWFA WOULD BE ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET MAX SO THIS WOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS ANY UVV. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. O'HARA [/QUOTE]
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