ET,
Your explanation of calculating anti-squat forces is interesting and easy to visualize. However, its premise that the wheel drive force is applied to the swingarm at a point 16" below the swingarm pivot is valid only if the wheel is not free to rotate around the axle. As long as the wheel is free to rotate around the axle, the swingarm can never be rotated by simply by applying leverage factors to either the wheel or sprocket--no matter how much force is used. However, the sum of the rotational forces applied to the wheel/sprocket will result in the wheel trying to move the axle in a particular direction (vector). In other words, all wheel forces are transmitted to the swingarm at only one point--the axle centerline--not from the perimeter of the wheel or sprocket. The trick is to understand the force vector's direction in relation to the swingarm pivot. If the vector passes through the swingarm pivot, there will be no anti-squat; if it passes below the swingarm pivot this (the distance between the vector and the swingarm pivot) will provide the wheel axle a lever arm with which it can rotate the swingarm downward (anti-squat) in respect to the frame. If the vector is above the pivot you have pro-squat.
This explains why SOG saw such dramatic differences in his bike's reaction to feeding power with the rear brake locked. In this situation the wheel is no longer free to rotate and the swingarm/wheel become a rigid member. This causes the chain to apply rotational force to the entire swingarm through the lever provided by the top edge of the sprocket--similar to your description. In this case, there is no drive force at the rear wheel and chain pull developed by the engine is applied to the rigid swingarm/wheel through the lever provided by the rear sprocket. This will always pull the swingarm upward--compressing the suspension--as long as the top chain run passes above the swingarm pivot.
However, as SOG observed, when the wheel is free to rotate separately from the swingarm everything changes. In this case, you basically have a lever between the chain and the ground, with the rear axle as the fulcrum. The chain is where the work is applied and the ground is the load. As forces flow through this lever, driving the motorcycle forward, the lever pushes against the fulcrum (axle) attempting move it in a particular direction. However, these forces can never apply torque to rotate the fulcrum/axle--they can only impart a force vector against it. In SOG's case, this vector was passing below the swingarm pivot and was thus imparting a rotational torque around the swingarm pivot that extended the suspension.
We introduce errors if we fail to view wheel forces as transmitted through the axle and instead think of forces coming from points around the wheel. Take a current paralever-equipped BMW street bike for example. This bike has no chain pull (its shaft-drive) and has a parallelogram linkage connecting the rear drive hub to the frame, which effectively cancels all driveshaft induced torque reactions that are fed into the frame. Using your example this bike's rear contact patch would have a huge lever (the distance from the contact patch to the swingarm pivot) with no counter lever provided by chain pull force. If this were true the Beemer would have a huge amount of anti-squat, when in fact it does not. This is because--like all vehicles--the beemer feeds its wheel drive forces into the rear suspension linkage from the rear axle centerline, not the wheel perimeter.
ET, thanks for your ideas, this is a fun discussion!