Stock Market Risk

[truespode]

Jeolous? You know I always have time for you Greenie baby :)

Ivan

 

[gwcrim]

OK, next let's all hold hands and sing Kum Baya. :confused:

 

[Vic]

12-4-02: 2

 

[Vic]

12-11-02: 2

 

[gwcrim]

My 'stuff' is showing a little short term weakness (has been for a week or so.) Nothing to be concerned about though. After the run up in Oct/Nov, it's to be expected.

 

[Vic]

12-18-02: 2

 

[Vic]

12-25-02: 2.5

 

[Vic]

1-1-03: 2.5

 

[gwcrim]

My short term indices continue to decay and are now effecting the longer term.

 

[Vic]

1-8-03: 3

 

[Vic]

1-15-03: 2.5

 

[Vic]

1-22-03: 2.5

 

[gwcrim]

My short term indices are showing high risk, though the long term is still positive.

 

[Vic]

1-29-03: 2.5

 

[gwcrim]

I'm surprised you're not at 3 or higher by now.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by gwcrim
I'm surprised you're not at 3 or higher by now.

Me, too. :scream:

 

[whyzee]

Vic, Gwcrim,
Thinking of grabbing up on AOL this week after things shake out a little, I got out of this over 3 years ago after a 2 for 1 split and made a killing. Company is still financially strong, and with the potential of a future break up from Time Warner this might free up assets for some new growth and a return to dividend payment. Any thoughts?

 

[gwcrim]

My main indicator as well as all the others are negative right now. Any new purchases need to be extremely well thought out. Personally, I'm raising cash and have been for a couple of weeks.

Technically for AOL only 1 out of 5 technical attributes are positive. That means that it's very weak right now. Not that it isn't at a nice low price. Just that at this particular point in time, don't expect any huge upside moves. Of course that is always subject to change. I can kinda see the stage being set for a nice rally but until that happens, it doesnt' happen.

(I shoulda been a lawyer. Cuz I can sure talk outta both side of my mouth, eh?)

There's changes in the wind at AOL from a fundamental standpoint. Their subscriber base isn't as profitable as is used to be and the Time Warner side of the equation is pretty fed up with the dot com side. Change can be good or bad.

AOL might be a dinosaur. Remember Prodigy? Used to be just like AOL. Now they're just another ISP. As folks mature in their surfing knowledge, the AOL template becomes cumbersome. For the long haul, I'm fearful. Long haul = five plus years.

 

[gwcrim]

Ya know as much as I hate to admit it because it's how I make a living, but it wouldn't surprise me if the stock market didn't shine for at least 12-24 months. I spent a lot of time last year placing short term high yield bonds. Bird in the hand ya know......

 

[Vic]

Generally, I don't trade individual stocks, so I have no real opinion on the stock. As a service, I think AOL pretty much sucks and agree with George's observations about the company.

Keep in mind, most stocks go up when the broad market goes up and vice versa. The broad market doesn't look so hot , at the moment.

 

[gwcrim]

Keep in mind, most stocks go up when the broad market goes up and vice versa.

Just a bit of investment trivia. There was a study done in the early 60's that came up with the following conclusion. On average changes in individual stocks are attributable to the investing public's reaction to four discernable components in the following proportions:

1- the overall market - 31%
2- the basic industry - 12%
3- the industry subgroup - 37%
4- the particular company - 20%

So basically 80% of the movement of a stock is NOT attributed to that particular stock.

Or as my technical analyst likes to say, "When the tide goes out, all the boats go down."

 

[Vic]

2-5-03: 3.5

 

[Vic]

2-12-03: 5.5

 

[gwcrim]

EEEEK!!! 5.5? :eek:

 

[Vic]

It's a relatively big jump in a week, but it's still only a neutral reading.