Seems to me that the only sure-fire trump card in the coming year or two will be water - we had a record dry winter, and the fire season started early. Droughts are very serious business down here in SoCal, where millions of people have chosen to live in what is naturally largely desert (with no long-term answer). Therefore, I think the chances are great that most things (if not all) that are on the other side of an issue concerning "water" will lose.