The Price of Oil/Gas and why

[XRpredator]

. . . Scrap metal is down to 30 dollars a ton, at its height it was round 285 dollars a ton! Strangely enough, copper and aluminum are no longer being frequently stolen, lazy thieves?

Scrap is down to ten bucks a ton here, but we got lucky and hit a couple loads at purt near $300/ton.

as to the stolen copper and aluminum, seems that the local scrap dealers 'round these parts won't take anything without writing down your license plate number and taking a copy of your driver's license. That's slowed down the "Meth Monkeys" from bringing in the brand new rolls of Romex.

 

[whenfoxforks-ruled]

At he high, in Gary Indiana they were pulling the electric service wires down from the pole to the house, while it was live. That is also the time we scavenged a cl 80 from atop the heap, people were cleaning out the piles from their land? And the license thing: only over 100 dollars on ferrous metals. If you believe it is stolen from you, you have to prove it in court. And the whole place has security cameras to boot!

 

[2-Strokes 4-ever]

Our contracting company does seamless guttering work. We usually have 500-600 lbs per month in scrap painted alum to haul in every month or so. Boy, it sure hasn't fallen of the map like sheet copper scrap!
On a crazy note: It's been a while since we've done any new copper gutter installation work... until just a couple months ago. Room addition... 50 ft of gutter, 3 mitred corners, 20 ft of downspout. Material alone $2,500.00! :yikes:
let's see, how many rear knobbies is that...

 

[jsantapau]

Seemingly some time ago,,,,, the warnings that our gas has ethanol in it have been removed? For an even stranger reason, E85 is 30 cents more than regular 87???? And it was 1.66 a gallon! I must assume that the value of the dollar has risen, substantially? Scrap metal is down to 30 dollars a ton, at its height it was round 285 dollars a ton! Strangely enough, copper and aluminum are no longer being frequently stolen, lazy thieves?

I doubt very highly the dollar has risen ,with this bailout option the government is trying to correct they are printing a lot of money to try and cover the costs. More paper money with nothing backing it up will increase inflation and decrease the value of the dollar. look up Germany after world war I. I believe the major reduction in scrap and oil is just because nobody is buying anything.My extremely limited knowledge of economics tells me that supply and demand is correcting itself, the past was a glut of phony money(credit) buying overinflated priced goods(stocks,oil,real estate) and the bubble popped

From what I understand most of our scrap was going to China because they were majorly industrializing. Well with the economy slumping and the fact a lot of people are afraid of Chinese products with the lead based paint on children's toys Chinese manufacturing just don't need the scrap.

alchohol costs more to cultivate,harvest ,brew,and distill then it is for oil to be pumped then distilled atleast at this time.

 

[Vic]

I doubt very highly the dollar has risen

The dollar has been rising since July.

 

[jsantapau]

How about last year or 2 or 3 or before the sub prime and the oil ridiculousness? that graph may only mean that the worlds economy is catching up to the US recession. One quarter may be worth something to a speculators or lower/middle management trying to prove their worth to there bosses but it is not how I am relating to it.

The dollar may be worth more to other currencies(I believe that is the graph you are showing) but the dollar is worth less to buy items such as food.I might have been discussing apples to an orange discussion and again economy is not my strongest subject.On my side of the coin I am being pessimistic,work slowing,no increase in wages,cost of living going up.Although I am fortunate not to have bought into one of those ARM subprime mortgages, my local taxes have skyrocketed.So my point of view is skewed to what is going to happen to me in the next 2 years.

Oh well just like a kidney stone this too shall pass

 

[2-Strokes 4-ever]

^^^ Hey, you're good. I like how you state "I believe" and "I think" rather than making concrete "I know it all" statements (which is offensive) you ask questions. Questions SHOULD make us look and check it out for ourselves... it's the only way we learn (If we truly want to know, and not just be aragant dictators.)
BTW... a medical insurance notice came today (Anthem Blue Cross for us goes WAY up starting January.)

 

[biglou]

$1.39 this morning! :)

 

[jsantapau]

^^^ Hey, you're good. I like how you state "I believe" and "I think" rather than making concrete "I know it all" statements (which is offensive) you ask questions. Questions SHOULD make us look and check it out for ourselves... it's the only way we learn (If we truly want to know, and not just be aragant dictators.)
BTW... a medical insurance notice came today (Anthem Blue Cross for us goes WAY up starting January.)

most of the reasons I definately am not "dictating the truth as I see it" is because it is only ME listening to the MEDIA. I am only going to listen to what I want to hear of only what they want to put out. In other words am I getting the whole truth and am I actually understanding what they are saying.Variables with no concrete control to compare them against.
By throwing my cinical thoughts out and listening to the rebuttal hopefully I will understand more.

anyway hope all had a great thanksgiving

 

[whenfoxforks-ruled]

Last week I noticed the scrap prices creeping back up. Well grab your ankles cause the ride down is seemingly over! Jumped back up nearly .25 in a couple of days. Well, I did get to see it down to 1.38. Make me puke, the idiot box had some bs about some bozo in saudi arabia snivl'in over his refinery work slowing down because of falling crude prices, poor baby. Oh it is going to be the worlds largest, blah, blah, blah! Wonder why he did not pay for it? Cool would be his desert paradise going back into the sand!!!!! Seemingly no more ethanol in our fuel? E-10 stickers gone, and E-85 is higher than pump regular?

 

[_JOE_]

We had some numb-nuts stealing electric transformers around here. That's just pure insanity.

 

[whenfoxforks-ruled]

The AC condenser units sitting in the yard, "ghetto gold"!

 

[_JOE_]

My bro-in-law worked for an electrician a while back, a few of his coworkers got canned for stealing wire. They would take it home and burn the housing off then take it in.

My father-in-law worked with a guy (dumb-ass) who stole some very large (200-300lb) slabs of aluminum. Yeah, they had serial numbers stamped on the bottoms and the company was a step ahead of them calling all the local scrap yards and alerting them to the missing items. Needless to say the guy got busted in short order.

I scrapped out an old washer a couple days ago. Had to drive through 6 inches of mud then get out and unload it, in 6 inches of mud, by myself. Got douched in, 6 inches of mud. All for 4 bucks. :bang:

 

[Patman]

The natives all seem a lot less restless now that prices are so low :)

I paid $1.45 yesterday and saw E85 for $1.22.

Just when many will get comfortable with the lower prices the rug will be pulled out again to create turmoil (an bigger profits). Of course the cheap fuel should bode well for the US automakers selling fuel inefficient vehicles so maybe they will be able to survive without a bailout. Of course they won't chaine their ways because there is no need..... until it happens again.

 

[whenfoxforks-ruled]

The gas has been holding steady here over the weekend, from 1.59 to 1.74, depending on what neighborhood you go to? Pat, do your pumps still have the 10% ethanol threat on it? Odd, by you the E85 is still cheaper? And regular did not bottom out? Or is by me odd? I am 20 minutes from the Whiting Indiana bp refinery.

 

[Patman]

I don't recall the 10% sticker on the pumps, I'll look next time I fill up later this week. Depending on what part of town the price can vary by $0.25 a gallon, sometimes more.

 

[motometal]

And if everywhere is in the fiscal red, what happens when somebody calls in for all their money?

what are you, psychic?

 

[2-Strokes 4-ever]

unleaded $1.26
diesel $2.09
OPEC announced a week or two ago that they can't make money :think: when a barrel of oil is under $50.00... what is a barrel currently? Anyway, they say... they are cutting production way back for 2009.
I'm thinking they p*ssed us off one time too many. Our household plans out all of our driving to be cost effective. And it's staying that way. Almost everyone I talk to is on that same page. :cool:

 

[Patman]

Going to have to do a lot more than just change driving habbits. Consider everything plastic and most medications comes from those barrels of oil as well.

 

[motometal]

I believe this whole ugly, financial mess that America is in, is MY fault. I'm greedy. If I want "stuff" so badly that I'll go beyond logic (what I can afford) to someone greedy like me who paints a rosey enough picture saying "sure, you can afford it, we'll lend it to you", then I AM the knucklehead for believing what I WANT to believe even if it's totally illogical. And do I often vote for who'll put the most money in my pocket?
A quest for "what I deserve" has no boundries.
The pursuit of "want and happiness" is an unfullfilled addiction.
But serving "needs and fullfillment" builds character and maturity.
We'll be dead and gone someday throwing our kids under this bus we've empowered... and what a selfish, greedy, "someone elses fault" example we have left them with.

wow, great post

 

[yzguy15]

The natives all seem a lot less restless now that prices are so low :)

I paid $1.45 yesterday and saw E85 for $1.22.

Just when many will get comfortable with the lower prices the rug will be pulled out again to create turmoil (an bigger profits). Of course the cheap fuel should bode well for the US automakers selling fuel inefficient vehicles so maybe they will be able to survive without a bailout. Of course they won't chaine their ways because there is no need..... until it happens again.

Oh what a load of crap.

Of course, let's assume the oil companies and automakers are in bed together, that makes sense....

Oil companies make a lot when commodity prices are high. Do they set prices? no. Does the government? no. That's the free market system working. Supply = low and Demand = high... Well what do you want to happen? The government to step in and regulate prices? What do you think they're doing with that cash? They're spending it to drill more wells with the higher cost of exploration and production.

Oil costs $25/bbl - and services cost $x to get projects done. Well guess what...
Oil Costs $100/bbl and services costs $4x to get projects done. It's not like Exxon is just chilling with all that profit in the bank laughing about it; they're spending it on exploration and production projects... by the billions!

And by the way, most major metro areas in Texas have 10% ethanol in the gas including Austin as I remember.

 

[Patman]

What exactly is a load of crap? It would appear to me that you either didn't get the direction I was going with the post or you don't realize there are forces outside of the USA that control the prices of oil, ever hear of OPEC? I was specifically noting that the activity of this thread had slowed as the price of fuel became lower. Also I was pointing towards the poor management of the domestic auto makers since lower fuel costs will continue to let them try to sell the same things because the low fuel prices justify not making improvements to the product they offer. No in the sack together thoughts there, just maybe a reliance on lower pricing to justify not making a better product. Then again that's discussed in another thread on DRN.

Frankly I don't care how much "Exxon" or any of the other companies make because it is a free market and I totally understand, support, and participate in that method of economics.

Yippee for the 10% corn juice in the local fuel, doesn't make any difference to me one way or the other. I just noted that I hadn't read all the stickers on the pumps but that may have not been clear either. :laugh:

 

[BSWIFT]

In the time I've been following this thread, I conceed to Patman's statement about the incentive or lack there of for improved fuel economy from the manufacturers. Simple case in point. Toyota makes impressive milage figures on a large segment of its production models. Then they go and produce a "truck"(in quotes for Pred's benefit) that competes head to head with Ford, Chevy, and Dodge. What do you know, their milage claims are no advantage over the Big 3. For myself, a pickup is a necessity for my work. Buying and owning a smaller model, Tacoma, Ranger, Colorado etc. doesn't pay off. Higher insurance rates, less power to haul the load and the resulting decrease in fuel economy because of the load. Carrying the tools and supplies around kills any fuel economy I could achieve but the costs in man hours saved by having what I need with me far exceeds the 2-3 mpg difference in efficiency. To top things off, the local Toyota dealerships are still getting close to list price on their Tundras.
Demand is what made the automakers produce trucks and SUV's and the consumers bought it, lock, stock, and barrel. Anyone can cry foul when you look at an oil company's gross income but they really don't make a high per unit profit, they just sell HUGE numbers of units. If I cannot make a certain percentage of profit from my materials and labor, I'll go out of business. Ever wonder why plumbers charge so much? It's more than just a nasty job. Until recent years, everything they carried on their van's was cast iron! Plumbers use to destroy vehicles from just everyday wear and tear. While they now have better, lighter products their industry demands/requires vehicles that can haul and handle a load. Not many mid-size trucks or vans doing that job.
I know Patman, no BS coming from him. You or I can differ with his take on things but his point of view holds water and he supports his views. As for the ethanol crap, 1.5 mpg better with 100% gas versus the grain mix.

 

[yzguy15]

The load of crap (I think) is this sentence - Just when many will get comfortable with the lower prices the rug will be pulled out again to create turmoil (an bigger profits).

The rug pulled out? Who's doing the pulling? I guess I just don't see how you could mean anything other than something like "oil companies are manipulating prices to make obscene amounts of money" with a statement like that.

I did misunderstand the next sentence, as I thought you were implying that the automakers and oil companies were working together on prices to help sell more vehicles. That would be a load of crap too, but I don't think that's what you meant.

I understand the way oil price works... well... I understand it as good as anybody else can. It's very complicated. OPEC really doesn't have that much stroke anyway because most countries overproduce their quotas. The quotas are like their number they throw out to try and manipulate the market and make people who don't know better think that they're doing the right thing. There is a reason why inventories are full and at all time highs. Too much production for the slowing demand. But everybody selling oil liked having money so they're going to continue to sell as much oil as they can to keep up their lifestyle. You think Saudi prince's are going to take a pay cut without a fight? Would you?

I think the real problem with domestic automakers is that they focused too much on building great trucks (and suv's) which is what a lot of American consumers want. The margins are better on trucks and they owned the Japanese in that market. That's all well and good until gas prices go through the roof and people that don't need a truck to haul a trailer or carry work stuff and just had one for the hell of it, want to go buy something more fuel efficient. Because that's the market that the Japanese have owned this whole time. Brian is right, Toyota and Nissan's trucks aren't anymore fuel efficient than the big 3's. And really, at this point, the small cars are similar too but the big 3's historically worse reliability and years of poor design are keeping people from buying impala's and sending them to accord's instead. Toyota's truck division is killing them right now and Nissan is giving up on the Titan/Armada to join forces with Dodge on a joint venture truck. I think that speaks to better management?

 

[yzguy15]

And it should make a difference if they're putting that ethanol crap in our gas without us having a say about it! Worse mileage, continuing to support agricultural subsidies, and worst of all... do you know what one of the byproducts of alcohol in the combustion reaction? H20. Think that is good for your bike? I can't imagine that it is.

I also read that CARB (IN CALIFORNIA!!!) even has come with research that concluded burning ethanol and gasoline together emits more nasty into the atmosphere than gasoline by itself. That doesn't matter too much if you (like me) don't buy into the CO2 global warming hype, but that's quite a large statement coming from CARB.