Stock Market Risk

[Vic]

8-1-07: 3

 

[Vic]

8-8-07: 4.5

 

[Vic]

8-22-07: 6.5

 

[Vic]

9-12-07: 3.5

 

[Vic]

9-19-07: 1.5

 

[Vic]

10-3-07: 0.5

 

[Vic]

10-10-07: 0

 

[Vic]

10-31-07: 1

 

[RM_guy]

Thanks Vic. Now I don't feel to bad about stopping my 401 contributions to have more cash on hand for buying another house ;)

 

[Vic]

I think the market has a long way up to go, longer term. Lots of mixed signals right now. I suspect we will be stuck in a 5-10% range for a little while. But, this is a very strong market. Any surprises will likely be to the upside.

 

[junkjeeps]

Vic,

I've watched this thread for quite a while and I'm a little confused. Does the lower rating mean a better time to be in the market? The rating has been on the lower end of the scale for a while now, but I'm experiencing phenominal returns. I'm not sure if I understand the correlation between the numbers and where you're suggesting the money should be. If the number is low does that mean you should be in stocks, or in fixed? And with a large number vice versa? I'm not a stock guru, just an average joe who's curious/fascinated with the market, always interested in learning more. Any elaboration on your scale appreciated.

Mark

 

[Vic]

Does the lower rating mean a better time to be in the market?

Reading the thread from the beginning should help to clarify things.

The model measures relative risk. It is not a timing model,per se. Generally, as the market rises, so does the risk and vice versa. Therefore;

0 = most risk

10 = least risk

Prudence suggests that one be relatively less exposed to the market during periods of relatively high risk.