Stock Market Risk

[gwcrim]

Things that make you go hhhmmmmmmm.....

We're getting slaughtered here. If the market hadn't priced in inflation due to high oil prices by now, I mean.... WTF!!!

 

[Vic]

6-14-06: 6.5

 

[Vic]

6-21-06: 7.5

 

[Vic]

7-5-06: 6.5

 

[Vic]

7-12-06: 5.5

 

[Vic]

8-9-06: 6.5

 

[Vic]

9-6-06: 5

 

[Vic]

9-20-06: 4

 

[gwcrim]

Vic, how high does your scale go?

Normally yours and mine go together. But mine isn't showing higher risk right now.

 

[Vic]

Vic, how high does your scale go?

0 = Most Risk

10 = Least Risk


With the market near record highs, I'm surprised the reading's not lower. I think it bodes well for the longer term. Lot's of resistance around here, though.

 

[gwcrim]

Lot's of resistance around here, though.

Ain't that the truth!

 

[Vic]

10-11-06: 2

 

[Vic]

11-15-06: 0

 

[gwcrim]

HHHmmmmm........... scary.

 

[Vic]

As I recall, in 1987 the market rose another 20% after the model hit 0, so I'm not too scared yet. After that, well, you know. :) I wouldn't be surprised to see it go sideways for a while. That might be enough to get the model back to a more neutral reading. If it really takes off from here, I think it might end badly. We actually are about due for the generational crash. :yikes:

There's certainly no sign of it rolling over yet.

 

[gwcrim]

We actually are about due for the generational crash.

Didn't that happen about 7 years ago? I'm sure not ready!

My technicals are indicating a short term over bought condition.... at least.

 

[Vic]

Didn't that happen about 7 years ago?

That was a bear, I'm talking about a CRASH. When prices drop precipitously in a very short period of time. When it happens, and it will, there will be no question as to what it is.

 

[Vic]

1-17-07: 1.5

 

[Vic]

3-7-07: 3.5

 

[gwcrim]

That's a move in the right direction!

 

[Vic]

3-28-07: 2

 

[Vic]

5-2-07: 1

 

[Vic]

FWIW, some of my shorter term indicators are at the opposite end of the scale.

Go figure. :whoa:

 

[gwcrim]

At which end is that? We're flyin' high right now. That's scary, especially this time of year.

 

[Vic]

Shorter term stuff is super bullish.