Stock Market Risk

gwcrim

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Oct 3, 2002

1,881

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• Jun 8, 2006

• #201

Things that make you go hhhmmmmmmm.....

We're getting slaughtered here. If the market hadn't priced in inflation due to high oil prices by now, I mean.... WTF!!!

 

Vic

***** freak.

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May 5, 2000

4,008

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• Jun 14, 2006

• Thread starter
• #202

6-14-06: 6.5

 

Vic

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May 5, 2000

4,008

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• Jun 21, 2006

• Thread starter
• #203

6-21-06: 7.5

 

Vic

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May 5, 2000

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• Jul 5, 2006

• Thread starter
• #204

7-5-06: 6.5

 

Vic

***** freak.

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May 5, 2000

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• Jul 12, 2006

• Thread starter
• #205

7-12-06: 5.5

 

Vic

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May 5, 2000

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• Aug 9, 2006

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• #206

8-9-06: 6.5

 

Vic

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May 5, 2000

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• Sep 6, 2006

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• #207

9-6-06: 5

 

Vic

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May 5, 2000

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• Sep 20, 2006

• Thread starter
• #208

9-20-06: 4

 

gwcrim

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Oct 3, 2002

1,881

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• Sep 20, 2006

• #209

Vic, how high does your scale go?

Normally yours and mine go together. But mine isn't showing higher risk right now.

 

Vic

***** freak.

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May 5, 2000

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• Sep 20, 2006

• Thread starter
• #210

gwcrim said:

Vic, how high does your scale go?

Click to expand...

0 = Most Risk

10 = Least Risk


With the market near record highs, I'm surprised the reading's not lower. I think it bodes well for the longer term. Lot's of resistance around here, though.

 

gwcrim

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Oct 3, 2002

1,881

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• Sep 21, 2006

• #211

Lot's of resistance around here, though.

Click to expand...

Ain't that the truth!

 

Vic

***** freak.

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May 5, 2000

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• Oct 11, 2006

• Thread starter
• #212

10-11-06: 2

 

Vic

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May 5, 2000

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• Nov 15, 2006

• Thread starter
• #213

11-15-06: 0

 

gwcrim

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Oct 3, 2002

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• Nov 16, 2006

• #214

HHHmmmmm........... scary.

 

Vic

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May 5, 2000

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• Nov 16, 2006

• Thread starter
• #215

As I recall, in 1987 the market rose another 20% after the model hit 0, so I'm not too scared yet. After that, well, you know. :) I wouldn't be surprised to see it go sideways for a while. That might be enough to get the model back to a more neutral reading. If it really takes off from here, I think it might end badly. We actually are about due for the generational crash. :yikes:

There's certainly no sign of it rolling over yet.

 

gwcrim

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Oct 3, 2002

1,881

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• Nov 16, 2006

• #216

We actually are about due for the generational crash.

Click to expand...

Didn't that happen about 7 years ago? I'm sure not ready!

My technicals are indicating a short term over bought condition.... at least.

 

Vic

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May 5, 2000

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• Nov 16, 2006

• Thread starter
• #217

gwcrim said:

Didn't that happen about 7 years ago?

Click to expand...

That was a bear, I'm talking about a CRASH. When prices drop precipitously in a very short period of time. When it happens, and it will, there will be no question as to what it is.

 

Vic

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May 5, 2000

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• Jan 17, 2007

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• #218

1-17-07: 1.5

 

Vic

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May 5, 2000

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• Mar 7, 2007

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• #219

3-7-07: 3.5

 

gwcrim

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Oct 3, 2002

1,881

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• Mar 7, 2007

• #220

That's a move in the right direction!

 

Vic

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May 5, 2000

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• Mar 28, 2007

• Thread starter
• #221

3-28-07: 2

 

Vic

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May 5, 2000

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• May 2, 2007

• Thread starter
• #222

5-2-07: 1

 

Vic

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May 5, 2000

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• May 3, 2007

• Thread starter
• #223

FWIW, some of my shorter term indicators are at the opposite end of the scale.

Go figure. :whoa:

 

gwcrim

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Oct 3, 2002

1,881

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• May 3, 2007

• #224

At which end is that? We're flyin' high right now. That's scary, especially this time of year.

 

Vic

***** freak.

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May 5, 2000

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• May 4, 2007

• Thread starter
• #225

Shorter term stuff is super bullish.