Stock Market Risk

[Vic]

4-23-03: 5.5

This is a relatively large one week jump in the model reading without a corresponding decline in the market. In past cases like this, the model has proven to be a leading indicator, suggesting that a decline in the market is near. My more sensitive models are also indicating this probability.

We shall see.

 

[Vic]

4-30-03: 3

Just to confuse the issue, we now have the same situation we had last week, except in the other direction. :confused: Could be last week's reading was an abberation. In any case, at this point, upside potential is limited, while downside risk is substantial.

 

[gwcrim]

Vic

Though I don't know how you cook your stew, my indices are pointing toward an over bought condition, at least in the short term, as well. But the main indicator is still positive.

Another point to keep in mind is the market seasonality. April to October are rough months for the market. Especially August through October.

 

[geremacheks]

I'm wondering if the market will try to fool us with seasonality this year. It's already fooled tons of professionals with April. Now the investment world will look for a slow and downward trend through the summer months. Ahhh...just what the market loves: crowd thinking. A chance to be perverse.

Perverse markets are money making markets. I love perverse markets. I so remember, not many years ago, when 99 out of 100 Wall Street professionals kept saying to stay out of internet stocks. And day after day, week after week, month after month, these stocks just kept soaring, despite what the professionals said. And then these same people would watch these stocks go up and cringe, saying, "Don't worry. Stocks never go straight up." I guess they wern't looking at the charts, because internet stocks continued to go straight up, and did not even look back.

If the perverse market happens, I think Ebay will be a stand out as it has been already. Lately the pros (Barrons's) have said it's overvalued. Those words have knocked it down for a total of one day. I just wish they'd all get bearish on this stock. Then it will do it best to go to the moon.

WARNING: Don't ever take any so-called professional's advice--they all retain the right to change their minds. And, for sure, don't take mine either. Think for yourself. When you are wrong, blame yourself. Go ahead, kick yourself in the butt, but then hurry along on your next trading plan. Life, and the markets, won't wait. :thumb:

 

[gwcrim]

I'm wondering if the market will try to fool us with seasonality this year.

Funny you say that. I've read two articles on the matter recently. Both of them admit there is most certainly a seasonality to the stock market. But both caution that you need to look at other things as well.

All in all, I've found seasonality a good general barometer. Especially when used in conjunction with indices like what I use, or possibly even Vic's.

 

[Vic]

5-7-03: 0.5 :eek:


Look out below!? :scream:

 

[gwcrim]

Ditto. My short term indices are VERY high risk. The overall market is still decent but ya might wait for pullbacks before you buy.

 

[Vic]

5-14-03: 1

 

[Vic]

5-21-03: 0

 

[jboomer]

...just what the market loves: crowd thinking. A chance to be perverse.

Yeah, I've been known to be pretty perverse myself. :yeehaw: :moon:

 

[geremacheks]

Talk about putting all your eggs in one basket (that's called belief in what you are doing) and watching that basket--even when the stock is deflated:

Bill Gates has 1.2 billion shares in Microsoft, and his right hand man, Steve Bollmer (sp?) has 470 million shares of the stock and is, according to Forbes, the 16th richest man in the world (or was that in the USA?).

And on news today that Bollmer will be selling a big block of his stock, microsoft natually goes........UP! ........ I love perversity. :thumb:

Speaking of perverse stocks, thank you, ebay. :yeehaw:

 

[Vic]

5-28-03: 0.5

 

[James]

Out of curiousity, did anybody get into F, GLW, or Flex back in March?

 

[Vic]

6-4-03: 0

 

[Vic]

6-11-03: 0

 

[Vic]

6-18-03: 0

 

[Vic]

6-25-03: 0

 

[gwcrim]

Boy Vic, your meter's been pegged for a while. So has mine. But it looks like things are beginning to soften up.

Good time to sell the dogs at least. I mean if they haven't been doing well in *this* market, they must be near dead!

 

[MrMXer327]

James, I bought a boat load of Corning in March... It has been doing well, but had taken a hit the past week.

 

[James]

Yeah, I think the hit was a good buying opportunity.

 

[Vic]

7-2-03: 1

 

[Vic]

7-9-03: 0

 

[Vic]

7-16-03: 0

 

[Vic]

7-23-03: 0

 

[Vic]

7-30-03: 0