Stock Market Risk
- Thread starter Vic
- Start date
LoriKTM
Super Power AssClown
Does it really look that bad, Vic? My stocks & 401(k) have been doing moderately well for the past few months.
I find it hard to believe that it's more risky now than in early 2003
I find it hard to believe that it's more risky now than in early 2003
gwcrim
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- Oct 3, 2002
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Things to keep in mind:
1- September and October are statistically the worst two months for stocks. Expect some turbulence for a while.
2- After the market has a BIG correction, the next few years are normally very rewarding.
My technical indicators are all showing that the market is very overbought BUT in this instance it can be expected to a degree.
I don't know how Vic arrives at his numbers but they sure do have a high correlation with mine. And until the market begins to deteriorate, stick with it.
Here's an old trader's adage:
Cut your losses short but let the profits run.
1- September and October are statistically the worst two months for stocks. Expect some turbulence for a while.
2- After the market has a BIG correction, the next few years are normally very rewarding.
My technical indicators are all showing that the market is very overbought BUT in this instance it can be expected to a degree.
I don't know how Vic arrives at his numbers but they sure do have a high correlation with mine. And until the market begins to deteriorate, stick with it.
Here's an old trader's adage:
Cut your losses short but let the profits run.
I kind of see what this indicator is doing finally as I was a bit confused at first about exactly what you are supposed to do with this number. I'd be real curious to see it go through another cycle or two before I put any faith in it.
How does your adage apply to this indicator crim as far as making investment decisions at this point in time? Just curious....THANKS
How does your adage apply to this indicator crim as far as making investment decisions at this point in time? Just curious....THANKS
Last edited:
- May 5, 2000
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- Thread starter
- #138
FWIW- The model would have shown several months of "zero" readings leading up to the 1987 crash. I doubt that we will see anything like that now (we could, but it's unlikely given current monetary conditions), but I certainly would not be fully invested at this point.
gwcrim
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- Oct 3, 2002
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At this point, one must be very, very choosy when making an investment. When the technicals (like Vic's system or mine) are showing high risk, you need to look at the fundamentals really closely. Avoid stocks with high PEs, or no earnings, or lots of debt. These kinds of stocks can be beat up pretty easily.
Stocks that have a good track record of dividend payment and/or earnings increases are usually more stable in a downturn.
But I'm with Vic here. It's a good time to have a little cash on hand. I'm at 30% cash right now.
WOW :thumb: How'd I miss this?
I have just started to do some research on what to invest in. At this point I have blown my wad on real estate. Now that I'm re-employed I need to start looking at where to put some money for a college fund for my kids, aswell as for retirement. Kids are 6 and 9, and I'm 29.
Now I have a couple peeps to pester :laugh:
If you'all could do me just one thing and recommend a good source for me to read/research from I would be much obliged!!
I have just started to do some research on what to invest in. At this point I have blown my wad on real estate. Now that I'm re-employed I need to start looking at where to put some money for a college fund for my kids, aswell as for retirement. Kids are 6 and 9, and I'm 29.
Now I have a couple peeps to pester :laugh:
If you'all could do me just one thing and recommend a good source for me to read/research from I would be much obliged!!
geremacheks
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- Feb 14, 2002
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Anybody know how to trade KTM? Call letters? Parent company? ADR? (Is this stock going to do what Harley did? Maybe!)
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