Stock Market Risk

Vic · Aug 6, 2003

8-6-03: 1

Vic · Aug 13, 2003

8-13-03: 1

Vic · Aug 20, 2003

8-20-03: 0

Vic · Aug 27, 2003

8-27-03: 0

Vic · Sep 3, 2003

9-3-03: 0

Vic · Sep 10, 2003

9-10-03: 0

gwcrim · Sep 10, 2003

All the meters sure have been pegged for a while, eh?

James · Sep 10, 2003

I'm gonna rethink this

LoriKTM · Sep 11, 2003

Does it really look that bad, Vic?  My stocks & 401(k) have been doing moderately well for the past few months.

I find it hard to believe that it's more risky now than in early 2003

gwcrim · Sep 12, 2003

Things to keep in mind:

1- September and October are statistically the worst two months for stocks. Expect some turbulence for a while.
2- After the market has a BIG correction, the next few years are normally very rewarding.

My technical indicators are all showing that the market is very overbought BUT in this instance it can be expected to a degree.

I don't know how Vic arrives at his numbers but they sure do have a high correlation with mine. And until the market begins to deteriorate, stick with it.

Here's an old trader's adage:

Cut your losses short but let the profits run.

James · Sep 12, 2003

I kind of see what this indicator is doing finally as I was a bit confused at first about exactly what you are supposed to do with this number. I'd be real curious to see it go through another cycle or two before I put any faith in it.

How does your adage apply to this indicator crim as far as making investment decisions at this point in time? Just curious....THANKS

Vic · Sep 17, 2003

9-17-03: 0

Vic · Sep 17, 2003

FWIW- The model would have shown several months of "zero" readings leading up to the 1987 crash. I doubt that we will see anything like that now (we could, but it's unlikely given current monetary conditions), but I certainly would not be fully invested at this point.

gwcrim · Sep 22, 2003

How does your adage apply to this indicator crim as far as making investment decisions at this point in time?

At this point, one must be very, very choosy when making an investment. When the technicals (like Vic's system or mine) are showing high risk, you need to look at the fundamentals really closely. Avoid stocks with high PEs, or no earnings, or lots of debt. These kinds of stocks can be beat up pretty easily.

Stocks that have a good track record of dividend payment and/or earnings increases are usually more stable in a downturn.

But I'm with Vic here. It's a good time to have a little cash on hand. I'm at 30% cash right now.

Vic · Sep 24, 2003

9-24-03: 0

Vic · Oct 1, 2003

10-1-03: 0

bsmith · Oct 1, 2003

WOW :thumb: How'd I miss this?
I have just started to do some research on what to invest in. At this point I have blown my wad on real estate. Now that I'm re-employed I need to start looking at where to put some money for a college fund for my kids, aswell as for retirement. Kids are 6 and 9, and I'm 29.
Now I have a couple peeps to pester :laugh:
If you'all could do me just one thing and recommend a good source for me to read/research from I would be much obliged!!

gwcrim · Oct 1, 2003

Most of what I've read in the past was from text books. But Peter Lynch wrote a book called "One Up on Wall Street" that was very good reading.

Vic · Oct 8, 2003

10-8-03: 0

Vic · Oct 15, 2003

10-15-03: 0

Vic · Oct 22, 2003

10-22-03: 0

Vic · Oct 29, 2003

10-29-03: 0

Vic · Nov 5, 2003

11-5-03: 0

Vic · Nov 12, 2003

11-12-03: 0

geremacheks · Nov 17, 2003

Anybody know how to trade KTM? Call letters? Parent company? ADR? (Is this stock going to do what Harley did? Maybe!)

Stock Market Risk

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